A simple tool for refining GCM water availability projections, applied to Chinese catchments

This is the final version. Available from the European Geosciences Union via the DOI in this record.The discussion paper version of this article was published in Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussions and is available in ORE at http://hdl.handle.net/10871/34612There is a growing desire for reliable 21st-century projections of water availability at the regional scale. Global climate models (GCMs) are typically used together with global hydrological models (GHMs) to generate such projections. GCMs alone are unsuitable, especially if they have biased representations of aridity. The Budyko framework represents how water availability varies as a non-linear function of aridity and is used here to constrain projections of runoff from GCMs, without the need for computationally expensive GHMs. Considering a Chinese case study, we first apply the framework to observations to show that the contribution of direct human impacts (water consumption) to the significant decline in Yellow River runoff was greater than the contribution of aridity change by a factor of approximately 2, although we are unable to rule out a significant contribution from the net effect of all other factors. We then show that the Budyko framework can be used to narrow the range of Yellow River runoff projections by 34%, using a multi-model ensemble and the high-end Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP8.5) emissions scenario. This increases confidence that the Yellow River will see an increase in runoff due to aridity change by the end of the 21st century. Yangtze River runoff projections change little, since aridity biases in GCMs are less substantial. Our approach serves as a quick and inexpensive tool to rapidly update and correct projections from GCMs alone. This could serve as a valuable resource when determining the water management policies required to alleviate water stress for future generations.Natural Environment Research CouncilUK–China Research & Innovation Partnership Fun

Ocean-atmospheric state dependence of the atmospheric response to Arctic sea ice loss

This is the final version of the article. Available from American Meteorological Society via the DOI in this record.The Arctic is warming faster than the global average. This disproportionate warming – known as Arctic amplification – has caused significant local changes to the Arctic system and more uncertain remote changes across the Northern Hemisphere midlatitudes. Here, we use an atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM) to test the sensitivity of the atmospheric and surface response to Arctic sea ice loss to the phase of the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO), which varies on (multi-)decadal timescales. Four experiments are performed, combining low and high sea ice states with global sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies associated with opposite phases of the AMO. A trough-ridge-trough response to wintertime sea ice loss is seen in the PacificNorth America sector in the negative phase of the AMO. We propose that this is a consequence of an increased meridional temperature gradient in response to sea ice loss, just south of the climatological maximum, in the central midlatitude North Pacific. This causes a southward shift in the North Pacific storm track, which strengthens the Aleutian Low with circulation anomalies propagating into North America. While the climate response to sea ice loss is sensitive to AMO-related SST anomalies in the North Pacific, there is little sensitivity to larger magnitude SST anomalies in the North Atlantic. With background ocean-atmospheric states persisting for a number of years, there is the potential to improve predictions of the impacts of Arctic sea ice loss on decadal timescalesThis work was supported by the Natural Environment Research Council grants NE/M006123/1 and NE/J019585/1. The HadGAM2 simulations were performed on the ARCHER UK National Supercomputing Service. For the provision of observed and reanalysis data the Met Office Hadley Centre and NOAA ESRL are thanked. Model data are available from the authors upon request

Oilseed rape (Brassica napus) as a resource for farmland insect pollinators: quantifying floral traits in conventional varieties and breeding systems

This is the final version of the article. Available from the publisher via the DOI in this record.Oilseed rape (OSR; Brassica napus L.) is a major crop in temperate regions and provides an important source ofnutrition to many of the yield-enhancing insect flower visitors that consume floral nectar. The manipulation ofmechanisms that control various crop plant traits for the benefit of pollinators has been suggested in the bid toincrease food security, but little is known about inherent floral trait expression in contemporary OSR varieties orthe breeding systems used in OSR breeding programmes. We studied a range of floral traits in glasshouse-grown, certified conventional varieties of winter OSR to test for variation among and within breeding systems.We measured 24-h nectar secretion rate, amount, concentration and ratio of nectar sugars per flower, and sizesand number of flowers produced per plant from 24 varieties of OSR representing open-pollinated (OP), genicmale sterility (GMS) hybrid and cytoplasmic male sterility (CMS) hybrid breeding systems. Sugar concentrationwas consistent among and within the breeding systems; however, GMS hybrids produced more nectar and moresugar per flower than CMS hybrid or OP varieties. With the exception of ratio of fructose/glucose in OP vari-eties, we found that nectar traits were consistent within all the breeding systems. When scaled, GMS hybridsproduced 1.73 times more nectar resource per plant than OP varieties. Nectar production and amount of nectarsugar in OSR plants were independent of number and size of flowers. Our data show that floral traits of glass-house-grown OSR differed among breeding systems, suggesting that manipulation and enhancement of nectarrewards for insect flower visitors, including pollinators, could be included in future OSR breeding programmes.This work was fundedby the BBSRC, including support from an Insect Pollinators Ini-tiative grant awarded to GAW (BB/I000968/1) that was jointlyfunded by the BBSRC, NERC, the Wellcome Trust, Defra, andthe Scottish Government. Support was also received from HighWycombe Beekeepers’ Association. Rothamsted Researchreceives strategic funding from the Biotechnology and BiologicalSciences Research Council (BBSRC) of the UK

Dermatitis associated with exposure to a marine cyanobacterium during recreational water exposure

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Anecdotal evidence reported an outbreak of symptoms on Fraser Island during the late 1990s similar to those expected from exposure to dermotoxins found in the cyanobacterium <it>L. majuscula</it>. This coincided with the presence of a bloom of <it>L. majuscula</it>.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>Records from the Fraser Island National Parks First aid station were examined. Information on cyanobacterial blooms at Fraser Island were obtained from Queensland National Parks rangers.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Examination of first aid records from Fraser Island revealed an outbreak of symptoms predominantly in January and February 1998.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>During a bloom of <it>L. majuscula </it>there were numerous reports of symptoms that could be attributed to dermotoxins found in <it>L. majuscula</it>. The other four years examined had no <it>L. majuscula </it>blooms and the number of <it>L. majuscula </it>symptoms was much reduced. These cases comprised a high percentage of the cases treated at the first aid station.</p

Road verges support pollinators in agricultural landscapes, but are diminished by heavy traffic and summer cutting

This is the final version. Available from the publisher via the DOI in this record.Data available via the University of Exeter's institutional repository https://doi.org/10.24378/exe.1563Supporting pollinators in agricultural landscapes is important for reversing their global decline. Road verges and hedges are used by pollinators for feeding and reproduction, but few studies consider entire pollinator communities, and it remains unclear how they are distributed across adjacent verges, hedges and fields, or how they are affected by traffic and verge cutting. We surveyed flowers and pollinators, using transect counts and pan traps, to explore the role of road verges and their associated hedges in supporting pollinators in an agricultural landscape in southwest England, and the impacts of traffic and verge cutting. At 19 sites, we surveyed the road verge (verge edge and verge centre), the verge hedge (both sides), a field hedge and the field interior. Road verges and hedges had a much greater flower abundance, flower species richness and pollinator abundance than field interiors. Verge hedges had far less woody cover than field hedges, but greater flower species richness. There were fewer pollinators along verge edges (next to roads) than along verge centres (2–11 m from roads) and fewer pollinators in road verges next to busier roads. Road verges were generally cut once (in summer), and cuttings were never removed. There were substantially fewer flowers and pollinators in road verges that had been cut, even though surveys often took place many weeks after cutting. Synthesis and applications. Road verges and their associated hedges can provide hotspots of resources for pollinators in agricultural landscapes, but their capacity to do so is reduced by heavy traffic and summer verge cutting. We recommend that beneficial management for pollinators should prioritize wider road verges (at least 2 m wide), roads with less traffic, and areas away from the immediate vicinity of the road. Where possible, verge cutting should not be carried out during peak flowering times.Natural Environment Research Council (NERC)Cornwall Area of Outstanding Natural Beauty uni

Spatial extent of road pollution: a national analysis

This is the final version. Available on open access from Elsevier via the DOI in this recordNatural Environment Research Council (NERC)Cornwall Area of Outstanding Natural Beauty (AONB) Uni

Modelling Oscillator synchronisation during vertebrate axis segmentation

he somitogenesis clock regulates the periodicity with which somites form in the posterior pre-somitic mesoderm. Whilst cell heterogeneity results in noisy oscillation rates amongst constituent cells, synchrony within the population is maintained as oscillators are entrained via juxtracine signalling mechanisms. Here we consider a population of phase-coupled oscillators and investigate how biologically motivated perturbations to the entrained state can perturb synchrony within the population. We find that the ratio of mitosis length to clock period can influence levels of desynchronisation. Moreover, we observe that random cell movement, and hence change of local neighbourhoods, increases synchronisation

Software development practices in academia: a case study comparison

Academic software development practices often differ from those of commercial development settings, yet only limited research has been conducted on assessing software development practises in academia. Here we present a case study of software development practices in four open-source scientific codes over a period of nine years, characterizing the evolution of their respective development teams, their scientific productivity, and the adoption (or discontinuation) of specific software engineering practises as the team size changes. We show that the transient nature of the development team results in the adoption of different development strategies. We relate measures of publication output to accumulated numbers of developers and find that for the projects considered the time-scale for returns on expended development effort is approximately three years. We discuss the implications of our findings for evaluating the performance of research software development, and in general any computationally oriented scientific project.Computational Horizons in Cancer (CHIC) project under EU FP7 grant agreement number 600841 (JG); CRESTA project under EU FP7 grant agreement number 287703 (DG,US); UK Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Council under grant numbers EP/I017909/1 (www.2020science.net, DG,JG,JMO) and EP/I034602/1 (US)

Long-term spatiotemporal stability and dynamic changes in helminth infracommunities of bank voles (Myodes glareolus) in NE Poland

Parasites are considered to be an important selective force in host evolution but ecological studies of host-parasite systems are usually short-term providing only snap-shots of what may be dynamic systems. We have conducted four surveys of helminths of bank voles at three ecologically similar woodland sites in NE Poland, spaced over a period of 11 years, to assess the relative importance of temporal and spatial effects on helminth infracommunities. Some measures of infracom- munity structure maintained relative stability: the rank order of prevalence and abundance of Heligmosomum mixtum, Heligmosomoides glareoli and Mastophorus muris changed little between the four surveys. Other measures changed markedly: dynamic changes were evident in Syphacia petrusewiczi which declined to local extinction, while the capillariid Aonchotheca annulosa first appeared in 2002 and then increased in prevalence and abundance over the remaining three surveys. Some species are therefore dynamic and both introductions and extinctions can be expected in ecological time. At higher taxonomic levels and for derived measures, year and host-age effects and their interactions with site are import- ant. Our surveys emphasize that the site of capture is the major determinant of the species contributing to helminth community structure, providing some predictability in these systems